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Posted on Wednesday January 2nd 2013 at 9:33 a.m.
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Tropical cyclone (tc) 05p (freda), located approximately 390 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked south-southeastward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a continued weakening trend with warming cloud tops and the loss of all banding features. A 310906z trmm microwave image shows a tightly wrapped low level circulation center and the deep convection is now confined to the southern semi-Circle.
The initial position is based upon extrapolation from the trmm image and satellite position fixes from multiple agencies. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 knots to reflect the weakening trend and is supported by Dvorak current intensity estimates of 90 knots from pgtw, knes and fmee. Upper-level analysis and animated water vapor imagery reveals good poleward outflow into a jet Max southeast of the system but is being offset by strong (20-30 knots) vertical wind shear.Tc 05p is tracking south-southeastward under the steering influence of the deep subtropical ridge (str) positioned to the east. Tc 05p is forecast to continue tracking southward through tau 36 but should then turn southeastward toward New Caledonia through tau 96 due to a deep midlatitude trough, currently over Australia, moving in and weakening the current
steering ridge. After tau 96 a deep-layered str will build in south of the system giving tc 05p a more southwestward bias.
Tc 05p will continue to weaken through the forecast period as strong vws and cool (24 to 26 degrees celsius) sea surface temperatures south of New Caledonia, further deteriorate the system. Dynamic model guidance continues to remain in poor agreement. The jtwc forecast track continues to favor the ECMWF solution through tau 72 but now shows the southwestward turn due to ECMWF losing the vortex near New Caledonia.
NOGAPS, GFDN, and GFS all show this general turn in the extended Taus and is consistent with the str that is forecast to
build in. There is low confidence in the forecast track due to the poor model agreement. Maximum significant wave height at 311200z is 40 feet.
Freda is the second tropical cyclone of the southern hemisphere summer in the Pacific. It follows Evan, which caused extensive damage and loss of life in Samoa and Fiji.
Hurricanes, Cyclones Typhoons:
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Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)